Urban Density Is Not an Enemy in the Coronavirus Fight: Evidence from China
Density HealthSummary
Areas of high urban density are often seen to be at a higher risk for epidemics. However, COVID-19 data has illustrated otherwise. Dense cities like Singapore, Seoul and Shanghai have combated the virus better than other less dense areas. To further the idea that population density may not be an important factor in relation to the spread of a virus, this article analyzed 284 cities in China. The article looked at where the number of confirmed coronavirus cases per 10,000 people were and the population density in the urban areas. China was selected as the sample, as it has already been through all of the phases of the virus. Further, the 12 cities nearest to Wuhan were removed and cases excluded, as they were at a higher risk due to location and confirmed cases that arrived from inbound international flights.
Using this data set, the article finds a lack of evidence to support the argument that density is a key determinant of the transmission risk of coronavirus. High-density cities - such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Shanghai and Tianjin - have lower confirmed cases per 10,000 people compared to lower-density cities. One reason for this could be that the larger cities also have larger GDPs, meaning that larger cities have more resources to use to combat the virus. A more predominant factor is the distance to Wuhan or connections to Wuhan. Xinyang, Zhumadian, Xinyu, and Yueyang (cities) are all close to the provincial border; 180,000 people living in Wenzhou travel to Wuhan for work. These cities all had relatively low densities but had high infection rates. The article also looks at the impact that distance from Wuhan has and found that the farther the city or person from Wuhan, the lower the chance of infection. Density can be beneficial to cities, as these cities can offer more services and facilities. To conclude, the article states that further evidence is needed to understand the benefits of dense populations.